Airbus forecast points to more aircraft and more city pairs
Airbus expects passenger traffic to more than double by 2045, with fleet replacement and new links between smaller cities shaping demand for both single aisles and widebodies.
Growth and replacement are arriving together
Airbus’s 2026 Global Market Forecast projects demand for 42,060 new passenger and freight aircraft through 2045. Of that total, 19,820 would replace older airplanes and 22,240 would support growth. The forecast assigns 81 percent of demand to single aisles and 19 percent to widebodies.
Those proportions reinforce a familiar fleet trend, but the replacement figure is equally important. The next two decades are not only about adding capacity; they are also about changing the efficiency, range, and cabin baseline of aircraft already serving established markets.
Smaller cities change the route map
Airbus expects faster growth among smaller urban centers to create more city pairs beyond traditional hubs. The A220 supports thinner routes, the A321neo and XLR extend single-aisle reach, and the A330neo and A350 cover progressively larger and longer missions.
That is why aircraft families cannot be understood by seat count alone. Range, trip cost, airport access, and cabin expectations determine which city pairs become practical and whether a new route can survive beyond its launch period.